Poland Is Not Paranoid. Geography Has Receipts.

Poland is often told to calm down about Russia by people whose countries have not spent centuries discovering what Russian reassurance can mean in practice.

This can become an unhealthy conversation. History is not a licence to exaggerate every risk, treat every Russian person as an enemy or turn fear into permanent nationalism. It is also not an obligation to forget patterns because remembering them makes a conference uncomfortable.

Paranoia imagines evidence. Poland has evidence.

Russian drones have violated Polish airspace. European governments have reported sabotage, cyber operations, disinformation and other hostile activity. The war in Ukraine remains a few hundred kilometres from Warsaw, depending on where you measure from and which part of the war has moved that week.

None of this proves that a direct attack on Poland is imminent. Serious security thinking does not require prophecy. It requires preparation for consequences that are plausible, severe and increasingly visible.

Fear is not a strategy

There is a temptation to answer Russian aggression with constant emotional mobilisation. Flags, speeches, dramatic language, another television panel. Public resolve matters. It is not enough.

Readiness is administrative and physical. Air defence has maintenance schedules. Ammunition has production capacity. Troops need transport, accommodation, communications and trained reserves. Civil institutions need continuity plans. Local authorities need to know what their role is before the role becomes urgent.

The strongest answer to fear is competent preparation.

Do not confuse hatred with clarity

I have little patience left for the Russian state and even less for the intellectual tourism that treats its imperial claims as an interesting alternative perspective. I also know Russians who oppose the war, have left, have lost people or live with consequences they did not choose.

Clarity allows both statements to exist. The state is aggressive. The ideology is dangerous. Collective guilt is intellectually cheap.

Poland is not paranoid because it prepares. It would be irresponsible if it did not.